His predictions:
are that he'll get the lowest rating but told he's doing well - just not performing at the appropriate level. Then they'll demote him and cut his salary. But they'll keep him.
I asked him if his pessimism is part of this or did he really know it and he said it was his pessimism but he truly expected it. So, in other words, he might have a few comments from his boss that makes him believe this but overall nothing in concrete.